CBO on the Stimulus
Consistent with textbook Keynesian models, they report a a significant short-run effect but little long-run effect. In fact, they estimate the long-run effect on GDP may be slightly negative due to crowding out.
As for employment, the CBO estimates the bill will create 1.2 to 3.3 million jobs at the end of 2010. By the end of the President's first term, the projected impact of the bill falls to 0.3 to 0.7 million jobs.