The Outlook

This figure, from Menzie Chinn, shows log real GDP, from 26 Sep 08 final release (red), from 30 Oct 08 advance release (blue), potential GDP (black), the mean forecast from the Wall Street Journal's October survey of forecasters (pink circle), and from the November survey of forecasters (teal triangle).

Real GDP a year from now is forecast to be about 5 percent below potential.