Thursday, August 21, 2025
Tuesday, August 12, 2025
Our Dollar, Your Problem
I just finished Our Dollar, Your Problem by my Harvard colleague Ken Rogoff. It is a great read for econonerds like me, especially for those who lean toward macro rather than micro. Ken wonderfully blends personal anecdotes with wise observations about the evolution of global finance.
Wednesday, August 06, 2025
Economics Teaching Conference
I will be speaking at a teaching conference to be held in New Orleans on November 5-7, 2025. If you might be interested in attending, click here.
Tuesday, August 05, 2025
Monday, August 04, 2025
Sunday, July 13, 2025
Wimbledon Wisdom
I recently ran across a graduation speech by the tennis great Roger Federer. I especially appreciated this passage:
In the 1,526 singles matches I played in my career, I won almost 80% of those matches... Now, I have a question for all of you... what percentage of the POINTS do you think I won in those matches?
Only
54%.
In
other words, even top-ranked tennis players win barely more than half of the
points they play.
When
you lose every second point, on average, you learn not to dwell on every shot.
You
teach yourself to think: OK, I double-faulted. It’s only a point.
OK,
I came to the net and I got passed again. It’s only a point.
Even
a great shot, an overhead backhand smash that ends up on ESPN’s Top Ten Plays:
that, too, is just a point.
Here’s
why I am telling you this.
When
you’re playing a point, it is the most important thing in the world.
But
when it’s behind you, it’s behind you... This mindset is really crucial,
because it frees you to fully commit to the next point… and the next one after
that… with intensity, clarity and focus.
The
truth is, whatever game you play in life... sometimes you’re going to lose. A
point, a match, a season, a job... it’s a roller coaster, with many ups and
downs.
And
it’s natural, when you’re down, to doubt yourself. To feel sorry for yourself.
And
by the way, your opponents have self-doubt, too. Don’t ever forget that.
But
negative energy is wasted energy.
You
want to become a master at overcoming hard moments. That to me is the sign of a
champion.
The best in the world are not the best because they win every point... It’s because they know they’ll lose... again and again… and have learned how to deal with it.
Thursday, July 10, 2025
The Fiscal Future
At 4:45 pm today, I will be giving the 2025 Martin Feldstein Lecture at the NBER Summer Institute on "The Fiscal Future." I believe you can watch the lecture live at NBER YouTube channel. In any event, I will post the video when it is available.
Or you can read the lecture by clicking here.
Update: The video is here.
Update 2: George Will offers a nice summary.
Wednesday, July 09, 2025
Tuesday, July 01, 2025
Today I Learned
"Beginning in the last decade of the 18th century, firewood output increased from about 18% of GDP to just under 30% of GDP in the 1830s."
Sunday, June 29, 2025
Sunday, June 01, 2025
Sunday, May 25, 2025
Harvard Derangement Syndrome
Fantastic article by Steven Pinker on the situation at Harvard. A tidbit:
And if you’re still skeptical that universities are worth supporting, consider these questions: Do you think that the number of children who die every year from cancer is just about right? Are you content with your current chance of developing Alzheimer’s disease? Do you feel our current understanding of which government policies are effective and which ones are wasteful is perfect? Are you happy with the way the climate is going, given our current energy technology?
Friday, May 16, 2025
Wednesday, April 30, 2025
Saturday, April 19, 2025
Monday, April 14, 2025
Thursday, April 03, 2025
A Virtual Teaching Conference
I will be talking at a virtual economics teaching conference on April 11. If you are interested in participating, click here.
Why the dollar is depreciating today
In a previous post, I noted that, other things being equal, trade restrictions strengthen the dollar. A reader asks, why then is the dollar depreciating in the wake of the newly announced Trump tariffs?
The answer, I believe, is that other things are not equal. In particular, the policy has reduced investor confidence in the U.S. economy. That's also why the U.S. stock market is declining relative to stock markets abroad.
The WSJ explains the dollar depreciation as follows:
The dollar’s sharp falls after President Trump’s tariff announcement raises concerns about the risk of a broader confidence crisis, Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos says in a note. “Developments since the start of the year make us worried about a broader undermining of confidence in the U.S. economic outlook and the medium-term desirability of dollar allocations.” This risks an unwinding of overweight positions in U.S. assets from countries that have exported capital to the U.S. over the past decade.
Wednesday, April 02, 2025
I called it
Almost nine years ago, I wrote that I would not support Mr. Trump's candidacy:
Mr. Trump has not laid out a coherent economic worldview, but one recurrent theme is hostility to a free and open system of international trade. From my perspective as an economics policy wonk, that by itself is disqualifying.
And then there are issues of temperament. I am not a psychologist, so I cannot figure out what Mr. Trump's personal demons are. But he does not show the admirable disposition that I saw in previous presidents and presidential candidates I have had the honor to work for.
Sadly, today's announcement about tariffs makes clear that I was right. Welcome to the kakistocracy.
Monday, March 24, 2025
Saturday, March 22, 2025
Might President Trump stumble onto a good policy?
I don't have much faith in the Trump administration's economic policy, but I see one small glimmer of hope. The president plans to announce his new tariff policy on April 2. So far, he has said two things about it. First, the goal is reciprocity. Second, he wants to treat a value-added tax, which most other nations have, as a tariff.
I don't buy either of these arguments. On reciprocity: Why should I shoot myself in the foot just because you shoot yourself in the foot? On the value-added tax, he is just wrong. A value-added tax is a consumption tax, not a trade restriction. (See here.)
But what if these two misguided arguments together lead Trump to propose a value-added tax?
That would be great. The new tax could finance cuts in other, more distortionary taxes, reduce the budget deficit, or some combination of the two. I have written about the virtues of a value-added tax here and here.
I know, I am probably engaged in wishful thinking.