Friday, October 10, 2008

Nobel Pool Update

One of organizers of the Nobel Prize pool provides this update on the betting:

Robert Barro has emerged in the Harvard Nobel Pool with 16.2% of all bets. However, the triumvirate of Hansen, Sargent and Sims, who many believe would be chosen together, has garnered nearly 23% of the vote and is the most likely prize, especially when one controls for home bias. Top vote getters as of now are below, although entries can be submitted until Sunday.

Barro 16.2%

Hansen 12.2%

Sargent 6.8%

Fama 6.8%

Hart 5.4%

Diamond 4.1%

Feldstein 4.1%

Sims 4.1%

Thaler 4.1%