Random Observations for Students of Economics
If you want to see me at the upcoming virtual ASSA meeting, you can do so at this session:
Larry Summers makes a good case that, on this issue, Mitch McConnell is right, and Donald Trump, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer are wrong.
I just finished The Queen's Gambit, the Netflix miniseries about a young woman who is an orphan and chess prodigy. Great show. Highly recommended.
Readers of this blog might be interested in the annual conference of NETA, the National Economics Teaching Association, sponsored by Cengage, the publisher of my principles text. This year, the conference is October 22-23, virtual, and free. I will be speaking at 11 am on the 23rd. You can get information about the event by clicking here.
Also, a week earlier, I will be speaking at EconEd, a virtual conference organized by Macmillan, the publisher of my intermediate macro book.
I was recently interviewed by Michael Klein for the Econofact podcast. You can listen to the podcast by clicking here.
The number of permanent job losses is rising but still nowhere near the level in 2008-2009. (Click on graphic to enlarge.)
This summer I have been working to prepare the manuscript for the 11th edition of my intermediate macroeconomics textbook, which will be available next year. Of course, the new edition will include a discussion of the current economic downturn and the policy response to it.
To help those teaching undergraduate-level macroeconomics this year, I have posted a piece of the manuscript at this link. Feel free to distribute it to your students.
We therefore conclude that the PPP had little material impact on employment at small businesses: we cannot rule out a small positive employment effect of the program (of e.g., 3-4 pp on employment rates), but it is clear that the program did not restore the vast majority of jobs that were lost following the COVID shock.
Our benchmark estimates imply that each job supported by the PPP cost between $162K and $381K through May 2020, with our preferred employment estimate implying a cost of $224K per job supported.
I am the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University. I use this blog to keep in touch with my current and former students. Teachers and students at other schools, as well as others interested in economic issues, are welcome to use this resource.
